Tonight’s broadcast schedule

Independence-Ravenwood 2 vs. Brentwood - 5:25 PM pregame, 5:30 PM faceoff BROADCAST LINK

Hendersonville-Beech-Gallatin vs. Tennessee Outlaws - 6:55 PM pregame, 7 PM faceoff BROADCAST LINK

Station Camp-Liberty Creek vs. Centennial - 8:25 PM pregame, 8:30 PM faceoff BROADCAST LINK

Previewing tonight’s games

The games that MTSN will be broadcasting are in BOLD.

Remaining Predators Cup first round games
Both games are being played @ Bellevue-Crisp
#7 Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central-Green Hill vs. #2 Ensworth-Nolensville-Lipscomb - 5:15 PM
Tale of the tape
Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central-Green Hill
First half record: 2-4-1 (Finished 6th out of 8 teams, remained in Tier 1)
Second half record: 2-4-1 (7th out of 8)
GNASH Cup: 4-8-2 (5th out of 6)

Ensworth-Nolensville-Lipscomb
First half record: 7-0-0 (1st out of 8, promoted to Tier 2 for second half)
Second half record: 4-2-1 (2nd out of 8)
GNASH Cup: Ineligible to win due to starting season in Tier 2

Season series: Mt. Juliet won only meeting 6-2 on November 27.
Of all the surprising results in the second half of the regular season - and there were quite a few - Mt. Juliet’s 6-2 win over Ensworth on November 27 may have been the biggest. Yes, bigger than Pope’s 5-0 beatdown on Franklin on January 22. Mt. Juliet’s offense hasn’t been on full-song this season (Jordan Antar having 10 goals in the second half of the season, with Ryan Woods, Carson Slocum, and Parker Triplett being joint second with three says a lot about a lack of scoring depth); the Ice Tigers, though, had a nice scoring spread: Ben Sonkin led the second half for them with five goals, JT Borland had the second-most with four, followed by Trex Hooper, Cam Fowler, and Justin Nozko each having three. 13 Ensworth players scored at least one goal in the second half; that’s pretty good. The result was a big head-scratcher, least of all because Reuben Allen played so well in the 2-2 tie against MBA on November 13, and also because Ensworth’s defense is pretty stout. The result showed, though, that almost everyone in Tier 1 has a glaring flaw: Summit’s goaltending is iffy at times, Ensworth’s defense can be vulnerable, MBA sometimes overrely on Hunter Wieck (they didn’t last Wednesday against Franklin, though), Franklin’s cohesion has come undone, Pope are too inconsistent, Father Ryan need more defensive help, Mt. Juliet don’t score enough, and Ravenwood needed to fire the coaching staff that won them back-to-back Predators Cup just to being developing their younger players. Pope head coach Justin Clark told me over and over that it was wide open this season, and he has been proven correct. Ensworth should be a team a lot of people pick to win the Preds Cup, but it isn’t a sure thing. In fact, it really shouldn’t be a surprise that any number of teams could win it. No one has a perfect team like Ravenwood almost had last year (and even then, Robbie Simonik forced them to win it in OT). So, maybe that November 27 result shouldn’t be a surprise, just another quirk in a quirky season.

I’m picking Ensworth to get revenge, though.

Consequences of this game’s result
Winner plays the Father Ryan/Pope winner on Wednesday @ 7:10 PM @ Centennial A in a Winners’ Bracket Semifinal
Loser plays the Ryan/Pope loser on Wednesday @ 9:15 PM @ Antioch-North in the first round of the Losers’ Bracket

#6 Father Ryan vs. #3 Pope Prep-MLK-GCA - 6:45 PM
Tale of the tape
Father Ryan
First half record: 3-4-0 (3rd out of 8 teams, remained in Tier 1 for second half)
Second half record: 3-3-1 (6th out of 8)
GNASH Cup: 6-7-1 (4th out of 6)

Pope Prep-MLK-GCA
First half record: 3-4-0 (5th out of 8, remained in Tier 1 for second half)
Second half record: 4-3-0 (3rd out of 8)
GNASH Cup: 7-7-0 (3rd out of 6)

Season series: Father Ryan won both meetings: 4-1 on September 27, and 7-6 on November 13.
These two games - as well as the 4-1 loss to MBA on January 24 - are probably the biggest examples of Pope’s inconsistency. They open the season with a 2-1 win over Mt. Juliet on September 25, then lose to the Irish 4-1 a night later, with Anthony Pellegrino replaced in goal after the second period. The second meeting was far more back-and-forth, with the Irish scoring the game winner in the second period. The most interesting statistic is the fact that Pope faced a different goalie each time: Zach Fonnesbeck in the first game, and Riley Barnes in the second (Fonnesbeck wasn’t even in the building for the second one). It was a tale of two different Popes in both games, too: they were stonewalled by Fonnesbeck in the first game, and in the second, were able to score, but the defense was poor, as, on four of the Irish’s seven goals, a Ryan player was able to get right to the front of the net without being seen. That’s something that the Knights will have to prevent tonight. The Irish will once again need Fonnesbeck to be at his best and convert their scoring chances, as was the case in the first game. Pope will have to tighten up the defense and take the game from the get-go, like they did against Franklin last month. I consider these two to be the chief “outside contenders” to win the whole thing, so, whoever loses tonight has a long path to try and prove everyone wrong.

I think the third time is the charm for Pope tonight.

Consequences of this game’s result
Winner plays Mt. Juliet/Ensworth winner on Wednesday @ 7:10 PM @ Centennial A in a Winners’ Bracket Semifinal
Loser plays Mt. Juliet/Ensworth loser on Wednesday @ 9:15 PM @ Antioch-North in the first round of the Losers’ Bracket

Predators Cup Losers’ Bracket first round game
#5 Franklin vs. #1 Summit-Page - 8:25 PM @ Bellevue-Crisp
Paths to this game
Franklin
Lost 4-2 to Montgomery Bell in the first round last Wednesday

Summit-Page
Lost 6-4 to Ravenwood in the first round last Thursday

Season series: Summit won the only meeting 3-1 on January 24
Most people would’ve picked Ravenwood to be the first team to be eliminated from this year’s tournament, because they’ve been in “Building for next year” mode since after Thanksgiving. Instead, it’s either going to be a Franklin team that’s totally fallen apart since a very promising start to the season, or a Summit team with really good players that picked the absolute worst time of the season to have a bad game. These two teams played a tight defensive battle last month, with Cam White scoring the game-winner for Summit with 29 seconds left. In fact, this is the game that truly cost Franklin the GNASH Cup; if it had ended in a tie, then, they and MBA would’ve both finished with 21 points, but the Admirals would’ve been awarded the trophy on the most wins tiebreaker, having nine to the Big Red’s eight. But now, the stakes are FAR higher than the regular season championship; this is do-or-die. I didn’t think that Franklin played too poorly against MBA the other night; the first goal came from leaving Lee Guy all alone in front of the net for a centering pass, the second from a shot out high that Grayson Butters didn’t see, the third deflected off of an MBA stick, and the fourth was Lee Guy getting too much space right off of a faceoff. MBA had a 4-1 lead in the second, and that allowed Hunter Wieck to do his job, and keep them in the lead, allowing just one goal on the way to the final buzzer. Summit, meanwhile, had more problems. Seth Wagner struggled in the first period, allowing three goals on five shots and then getting pulled (the first goal can be pinned on him; the second happened because Oliver Lutz was able to get to the front of the net without being challenged; and the third was a tip-in). Twice, the Spartans tied the game, but couldn’t take it from the Raptors. This feels like another tight defensive battle where it may not be decided until late in regulation or maybe even in overtime. For the winner, this could be a turning point to propel them to a deep run. For the loser, it’s a very disappointing way to end a promising season.

Either way, I’m picking Franklin to win this one.

Consequences of this game’s result
Winner plays the Father Ryan/Pope vs. Mt. Juliet/Ensworth loser on February 21 @ 8:30 PM @ Centennial B in a Losers’ Bracket Quarterfinal
Loser is eliminated

Henry Hine Cup Winners’ Bracket Semifinals
#7 Hendersonville-Beech-Gallatin vs. #3 Tennessee Outlaws - 7 PM @ Centennial B
Paths to this game
Hendersonville-Beech-Gallatin
Defeated Centennial 6-3 in the first round last Wednesday

Tennessee Outlaws
Defeated Station Camp-Liberty Creek 4-3 in the first round last Wednesday

Season series: First game ended in a 4-4 tie on October 9, Outlaws won the second meeting 7-6 on December 4
If you’re surprised that this is a Winners’ Bracket Semifinal matchup, you really shouldn’t be. Hendersonville kept Centennial close both times they played them, and if they were finally going to get one over on the Cougars, the playoffs are a perfect time. Trailing 3-2 after two, the Commandos scored four unanswered in the third to take the victory, with Merrick Mott collecting a third period hat trick. Meanwhile, the Outlaws took a 3-1 lead just past the halfway point of the second, only for the Bison to score twice in 15 seconds to tie the game near the end of the period. It felt like overtime was imminent, until Jacob Schenk scored the game-winner with 25 seconds left in regulation. Justin Iannuccilli was terrific in net, steadying himself after the two-goal blast from Station Camp in the second. Tonight’s game could absolutely end up like the December 4 meeting, with goals galore. Both sides have plenty of scorers, so, we could have ourselves a back-and-forth showdown. It will be by far the best game of the three on Centennial B tonight.

I’ll pick the Outlaws to win.

Consequences of this game’s result
Winner plays USN/Rutherford winner on February 21 @ 9:15 PM @ Antioch-North in the Winners’ Bracket Final
Loser plays the Indy/Brentwood winner on Wednesday @ 8:30 PM @ Centennial B in a Losers’ Bracket Quarterfinal

#4 USN-BA-Nashville Christian-FRA-Goodpasture vs. #1 Rutherford Rampage - 7:40 PM @ Centennial A
Paths to this game
USN-BA-Nashville Christian-FRA-Goodpasture
Defeated Brentwood 3-0 in the first round last Wednesday

Rutherford Rampage
Defeated Independence-Ravenwood 2 6-1 in the first round last Wednesday

Season series: USN won the only meeting 4-1 on December 6
This is a big game, because, as I have said before, I think that USN are the only team that can realistically stop the Rampage from winning the Hine Cup. They have the goaltending and enough of the depth to do so. Ben Schwarz was terrific in net for them against Brentwood last week, as Rich Melin told me (I believe him; I’ve seen enough of Ben to know how good he is), and Vasili Santas capitalized on his two scoring chances, with Ryan Barrett chipping in an empty-netter at the end. Rutherford, meanwhile, were only up 2-1 on Indy after two, thanks to Catcher Greyson keeping the Eagles in it, before a four-goal burst early in the third put the game away for Rutherford. The most surprising part about the Rampage’s win was the fact that leading scorer Justin Dickinson didn’t play. Second-leading scorer Eddie Maze scored twice, though. The difference between the December 6 game and tonight’s is USN faced Jackson Wilson in the Rutherford crease that night; they will surely see Alec Dawes this time.

I’m picking Rutherford to win.

Consequences of this game’s result
Winner plays Hendersonville/Outlaws winner February 21 @ 9:15 PM @ Antioch-North in the Winners’ Bracket Final
Loser plays Station Camp/Centennial winner Wednesday @ 7:30 PM @ Antioch-North in a Losers’ Bracket Quarterfinal

Henry Hine Cup Losers’ Bracket first round games
Both games will be played @ Centennial B
#8 Independence-Ravenwood 2 vs. #5 Brentwood - 5:30 PM
Paths to this game
Independence-Ravenwood 2
Lost 6-1 to Rutherford Rampage in the first round last Wednesday

Brentwood
Lost 3-0 to USN-BA-Nashville Christian-FRA-Goodpasture in the first round last Wednesday

Season series: Brentwood won only meeting 6-1 on November 27
I feel bad for Indy. Catcher Greyson is a terrific goaltender, but they don’t have the depth to reward him by stealing games. Now, they have to play a Brentwood team that will absolutely make sure to not be the team that gets knocked out by the Eagles. In that November game, the Bruins had a four-goal first period that pretty much put it away. I can’t see tonight’s game going any differently.

Brentwood will win.

Consequences of this game’s result
Winner plays Hendersonville/Outlaws loser on Wednesday @ 8:30 PM @ Centennial B in a Losers’ Bracket Quarterfinal
Loser is eliminated

#6 Station Camp-Liberty Creek vs. #2 Centennial - 8:30 PM
Paths to this game
Station Camp-Liberty Creek
Lost 4-3 to Tennessee Outlaws in the first round last Wednesday

Centennial
Lost 6-3 to Hendersonville-Beech-Gallatin in the first round last Wednesday

Season series: Centennial won both meetings - 4-1 on October 23, and 6-2 on November 8
Station Camp went from being 26 seconds away from pushing the Outlaws to overtime and having a chance to win the game, to seeing Jacob Schenk score the game-winner with 25 seconds left, and forcing them to play a Centennial team that swept them in the regular season to try and stay alive. Meanwhile, Centennial had a 3-2 lead after two periods, only for Hendersonville to rattle off four unanswered in the third to steal the game. You know what Centennial’s biggest problem was? They only had ten shots on goal. Yes, THE HENRY HINE CUP 2 SEED HAD ONLY TEN SHOTS ON GOAL AGAINST THE 7! That boggles the mind, especially when they have such offensive depth, with the likes of Brendan Mitchell, Calvin Zacharias (who scored on Wednesday), Aiden Knecht, Aiden Gardner (who also scored on Wednesday), and when you have Rhett Gordon (who also scored), who’s not afraid to move bodies to help his team. Centennial have put themselves on a rough road to a repeat, especially when the USN/Rutherford loser will be awaiting them on Wednesday, should the Cougars win.

Which they will.

Consequences of this game’s result
Winner plays USN/Rutherford loser on Wednesday @ 7:30 PM @ Antioch-North in a Losers’ Bracket Quarterfinal
Loser is eliminated

Brackets

Predators Cup

Henry Hine Cup

Wednesday’s schedule

The games that MTSN will be broadcasting are in BOLD.

Predators Cup Winners’ Bracket Semifinals
Both games will be played @ Centennial A
Father Ryan/Pope winner vs. Mt. Juliet/Ensworth winner - 7:10 PM
Ravenwood vs. Montgomery Bell - 8:40 PM

Predators Cup Losers’ Bracket first round game
Father Ryan/Pope loser vs. Mt. Juliet/Ensworth loser - 9:15 PM @ Antioch-North

Henry Hine Cup Losers’ Bracket Quarterfinals
Station Camp/Centennial winner vs. USN/Rutherford loser - 7:30 PM @ Antioch-North
Indy/Brentwood winner vs. Hendersonville/Outlaws loser - 8:30 PM @ Centennial B

Podcasts

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The next newsletter comes out tomorrow, February 13.