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- MTSN GNASH Newsletter for January 26, 2026
MTSN GNASH Newsletter for January 26, 2026
Explaining all of the scenarios that could decide Preds Cup seeds 2 through 5!
No games today.
They’ve all been postponed; Centennial will be closed today and tomorrow, while Ford-Bellevue will be closed today, then make a decision on tomorrow sometime later this afternoon/evening. There is hope of trying to get the games in this week, but only if they can get the ice time; otherwise, they might have to be pushed to next week, which would delay the start of playoffs. Thanks, Old Man Winter!
Postponed games
Teams that still have to have a Senior Night ceremony are underlined.
Ensworth-Lipscomb-CPA vs. JPII-MLK-GCS
Brentwood-BA-USN vs. Rutherford Rampage
Independence-Centennial vs. Montgomery Bell
Page-Summit vs. Tennessee Outlaws
Franklin vs. Station Camp-Liberty Creek-Nashville Christian
Standings

Postseason tournaments contention tracker

All the scenarios for seeds 2-5 for the Predators Cup
I prematurely declared that Hendersonville-Beech-Lawson would be the 2 seed for the Predators Cup; I retracted that claim in yesterday’s newsletter. In actuality, any of the Commandos, Page-Summit, or Montgomery Bell could be the Preds Cup 2 seed, while Franklin could get as high as the 3 seed.
Let’s go over all of the scenarios:
Scenario #1: Page, MBA, and Franklin all win their one remaining game
In this scenario, those three teams all finish with 22 points from a record of 10-3-2, matching Hendersonville. The four would be ranked as such:
Hendersonville
MBA
Page
Franklin
The tiebreaker used here would be head-to-head. In the games between the four teams, Hendersonville won two: against MBA and Franklin. Yes, the Commandos lost to Page, but Mark Layne told me years ago to treat a multi-team tie (as in, more than two) as its own miniature set of standings when it came to head-to-head. Hendersonville went 2-1-0 against these three teams, so, in a four-way tie, they come out on top. MBA and Page both went 1-1-1; both teams tied Franklin, and while Page beat Hendersonville, MBA beat Page, so, head-to-head in the 1-on-1 meeting matters here. The Admirals finish last, because, in addition to the two ties, they lost to Hendersonville on October 13.
Scenario #2: Page and Franklin win, but MBA don’t
This one is easy, as on head-to-head, the three would be ranked like this:
Page
Hendersonville
Franklin
Page beat Hendersonville and tied Franklin, while Hendersonville beat Franklin but lost to Page, and Franklin lost to Hendersonville and tied Page.
Scenario #3: Page win, but MBA and Franklin don’t
Page take the 2 seed on head-to-head, dropping Hendersonville to the 3.
Scenario #4: MBA or Franklin win, but Page don’t
Hendersonville own the head-to-head against both, so, the Commandos would be the 2 seed, and either the Big Red or Admirals would be the 3.
Scenario #5: Page and MBA win, but Franklin don’t
This one is harder, as Hendersonville beat MBA, who beat Page, who beat Hendersonville, so you can’t separate the three on head-to-head.
In this case, we would have to move to the third tiebreaker: goal differential. Of course, this has a quirk, in that, in games where a team wins or loses by a margin bigger than six goals, only goals scored or allowed that takes the margin to six are counted. For example, if Team A beats Team B 10-1, only seven goals scored or allowed are counted towards goal differential.
MBA have won five games by a margin bigger than six goals this season: 9-1 against the Outlaws on September 22; 9-2 against the Rampage on November 10; 13-3 against JPII on December 1; 8-0 against the Kings on December 8; and 12-1 against Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central-Lebanon on January 21. You take away two goals scored against the Outlaws, one scored against the Rampage, four scored against JPII, two scored against the Kings, and five scored against Mt. Juliet. That’s 14 goals scored taken away for goal differential, bringing their goals scored down from 86 to 72. The Big Red have lost three games, all within a margin of six goals, so all of the 38 goals that they have allowed are counted, bringing their current goal differential in accordance with GNASH rules to +34. Hendersonville, meanwhile, have only won one game by a margin bigger than six goals, their 11-4 win over the Outlaws on December 3, meaning their goals scored only goes down from 79 to 78. They have not lost a game by a margin bigger than six goals, meaning that all 54 goals they’ve allowed are counted, bringing their final tiebreaker GD to +24. Page’s recent 11-0 win over the Kings on January 14 is the only game they’ve won by a margin bigger than six, so, their goals scored goes from 67 down to 62. And, like the Big Red and Commandos, they haven’t lost a game by more than six, so, all 39 goals they’ve allowed are counted, bringing their current tiebreaker GD to +23.
The Commandos are done, meaning that they can’t overtake MBA’s goal differential; but Page could. However, the Spartriots would have to beat the Outlaws by six, while MBA would have to lose to Indy by six, which would make the final official GD tiebreaker score +29 to +28. But if MBA only lose by five with Page still winning by six, they would both finish at +29, which would take us to tiebreaker #4: fewest goals allowed in all games. In this case, Page would win the tiebreaker, having allowed one fewer goal, meaning the final ranking would be Page, then MBA, then Hendersonville. No matter how Page and MBA would be ranked, Hendersonville would be ranked third.
Scenario #6: MBA and Franklin win, but Page don’t
In this scenario, Hendersonville would win the tiebreaker based on head-to-head, having beaten both the Big Red and Admirals, while MBA and Franklin tied in their one meeting on October 27.
It would, once again, come down to goal difference. Franklin have only won one game by a margin bigger than six goals: their 8-1 win over JPII on January 12, so their goals scored just goes from 54 to 53; their three losses were all within the six-goal margin, so all 23 of the goals that they have allowed this season are counted, which means that their current tiebreaker goal differential is +30, with MBA’s being +34, as previously mentioned.
MBA would take the 3 seed on the GD tiebreaker as long as Franklin beat Station Camp by four goals or less if MBA only beat Indy by one goal; but if MBA only beat Indy by one goal, and Franklin beat Station Camp by six, then the Admirals would win the GD tiebreaker, and take the Preds Cup 3 seed.
But what if MBA beat Indy by one, and Franklin beat Station Camp by five? Then, they both finish with a GD of +35. That would take us to the fourth tiebreaker, which is fewest goals allowed in all games. Unless Franklin beat Station Camp by five in a game with a ridiculous score like 25-20, and MBA beat Indy 4-3, the Admirals would take the 3 seed on that tiebreaker, as well.
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