Tonight’s MTSN broadcast

Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central-Green Hill vs. Ravenwood - 8:10 PM pregame, 8:15 PM faceoff BROADCAST LINK

Scenarios for tonight

So many scenarios with tonight’s games, they had to be split into TWO screenshots!

Previewing tonight’s games

The game that is being broadcast by MTSN is in BOLD.

Tennessee Outlaws (2-2-2) vs. Summit-Page (4-2-0) - 7:10 PM @ Centennial A
When this season began, I seriously thought that these two teams would be battling in this game for the last promotional place to Tier 1. Well, it’s still on the table in this game…but for only one of the contestants. While Summit - as expected - soared to the almost-top of Tier 2, the Outlaws quickly faded back in the early going, their 4-4 tie with Hendersonville on October 9 followed by the 4-2 loss to Centennial on October 18, then the 10-2 whipping they got from Ensworth-Nolensville-Lipscomb exactly a week later. They’re coming off of a surprising (to me, anyway) 5-1 win over USN last week. The Spartans, meanwhile, are coming off a 10-7 goalfest loss to Ensworth; not a surprise, considering that they’re the two best offenses in Tier 2 this season. I think the Outlaws need a hot start, and will need good goaltending to hold Summit back.

Unfortunately, I don’t think that’s going to happen. I’m picking Summit to win, and grab the second promotional place to Tier 1.

Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central-Green Hill (2-3-1) vs. Ravenwood (2-4-0) - 8:15 PM @ Antioch-South
By the end of this night, one of the Top 3 finishers from last year’s Predators Cup - champions Ravenwood, runners-up Mt. Juliet, or third place Brentwood - will be moving down to Tier 2, and playing in the Henry Hine Cup. Whoever it is, it will be a surprise. While none of the three have been great so far, none of them have been horrible, either. But one of them is about to lose their place in the top division, and join Rutherford Rampage on the elevator to the ground floor. Simply put, if Ravenwood lose, they’re going down. If the Raptors and Bears tie, the Bruins are going down. If Ravenwood win by less than three, the Bruins are going down. If Ravenwood win by three goals, then it comes down to fewest goals allowed in all games, and the Bruins would still be going down. If Ravenwood win by four goals or more, Mt. Juliet are going down. The fact that this can go in so many directions is maddening, and the fact that three scenarios point to the Bruins going down is even more insane. So, both teams playing this game are coming off of big results, Mt. Juliet having beaten Father Ryan 3-2 on Monday, and the Raptors beating Pope 4-2 last Wednesday. If Ravenwood had lost that game, Monday’s win for MJ would’ve meant that Ravenwood would be going down, regardless of tonight’s result, and thus, tonight’s game would’ve been meaningless. But, it’s not, so, here we are. I think I would say that Ravenwood’s offense is a bit deeper than Mt. Juliet’s, and the defense is better, too. The question is, who do MJ go with in net: Noah Smartt, Brandt Balz, or Korbin Vickrey? The choice could mean the difference between staying up, and going down.

I’m picking Ravenwood to win, but by enough of a margin where Mt. Juliet will stay up, and Brentwood will be the team having to go down.

Centennial (0-0-0) vs. Station Camp-Liberty Creek (0-0-0) - 8:30 PM @ Centennial B
The second half of the regular season begins with a rematch of a game that took place just 17 days ago on October 23, when the Cougars won 4-1. Times were different then. Centennial (2-3-2 in the first half of the regular season) were still in the hunt to move up to Tier 1. That game against Station Camp (1-4-2 in the first half) was a needed win to keep their hopes alive. Then, two nights later, the Cougars had a 7-3 lead late in the third against Independence-Ravenwood 2, only for the Eagles to come back and force the game to end in a 7-7 tie, meaning that Centennial’s fate rested on the Summit-USN game the following Monday. When Summit won, it meant that Centennial would be staying put. And now comes the part of this format that I am sour on. For Tier 2 teams, games in the second half of the regular season are meaningless. Yes, they’re playing for playoff seeds, but that’s it (at least the six teams that got to stay in Tier 1 get to chase the GNASH Cup). There’s no incentive to getting a top seed, no byes into a later round of the Hine Cup. Everyone starts the tournament at the same point. Case in point: Centennial in the second half of the regular season last year. For all seven of their second half games, Connor McKenzie literally alternated his starting goalies for each game; his goalies last year were ace Andrew Stratton and backup (on loan from the Rampage) Alex Beck. Beck started their first game of the second half (which, oddly enough, was against Station Camp, for whom that game was also their second half opener), then Stratton would get the next start, then Beck, then Stratton, until the end of the regular season. Centennial went 3-4 in the second half of the regular season, earning the Hine Cup’s 6 seed, then riding Stratton (and the offense of Aiden Knecht) to the Hine Cup title. So, why should Centennial do anything different this time? They’ll most likely alternate starts between David Busby and Kade Henderson, their backup loaner from Indy. Henderson has only played in one game this season (that game against Indy), so, I expect him to start tonight’s game. They may as well give him all the playing time he can get before hopping on Busby’s back for the Hine Cup.

I’ll pick Station Camp to win this one.

USN-BA-Nashville Christian-FRA-Goodpasture (2-3-1) vs. Hendersonville-Beech-Gallatin (3-1-2) - 8:40 PM @ Centennial A
If Summit beat the Outlaws (as I think they will), this game will not mean anything when it starts, because Summit will be heading up to Tier 1, and these two teams will be staying in Tier 2 (well, USN were doomed to staying in Tier 2 after losing to the Outlaws last week). The Commandos, like Centennial, are also a “What if?” team, particularly their result against the Outlaws from October 9. Up 4-3 with just under half the third period to go, Gage Salamy takes an unnecessary post-whistle roughing penalty, and Clive Keeler scores for the Outlaws on the ensuing power play, allowing the game to end in a 4-4 tie. If Hendersonville had held on and won that game, they would be one point ahead of Summit in the standings coming into tonight. Alas, they need the Outlaws to help them out, then, they have to get some positive result from this game. What I’m wondering is, who do USN go with in net - their usual starter, Ben Schwarz, or backup Mattilda Cox? If it’s Schwarz, then. he’s the best goalie that Hendersonville have faced so far. And, for my money, USN’s top forwards of Ryan Barrett, Barrett Teasdale, and Jayden Charnparnichkarn, are better than Hendersonville’s top forwards of Colin Smith, Justin Schaefer, and Patrick Sullivan. If Schwarz starts in net, and makes life hard for Hendersonville, then any quest to move up - if it’s still alive by that point - could be stifled by USN capitalizing on their scoring chances.

I think that USN will start Cox, meaning a Hendersonville win.

Standings

Monday’s final score

Mt. Juliet-Wilson Central-Green Hill 3, Father Ryan 2 PODCAST LINK

Podcasts

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The next newsletter comes out tomorrow, November 9.